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Robbie Temple v Adrian Waller (Wed 23 Jan 2019)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-9,3-11,7-11,8-11.

Starting level for Robbie Temple: 17,389, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Adrian Waller: 40,035, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 130% better than Robbie Temple.

Adrian Waller won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 32% better than Robbie Temple in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Adrian Waller was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 26,876 and 40,035 without affecting his level.

As Adrian Waller has played below his allowed range at 24,794, his level reduction is 8.4% before damping. On the assumption that Adrian Waller would normally have been playing at level 33,537 (based on typical behaviour), Robbie Temple played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to -3.1% and Robbie Temple changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes -1.2% and for Robbie Temple becomes +3.5%.

Given Adrian Waller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 68% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Robbie Temple's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Adrian Waller is -0.5% and for Robbie Temple is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 87%, Robbie Temple: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 65%, Robbie Temple: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robbie Temple: 17,706, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Adrian Waller: 39,766, level confidence: 65%.