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Peter Billson v Chris Matthews (Tue 15 Jan 2019)

Match won by Peter Billson. Result: 11-8,7-11,11-13,11-3,11-3.

Starting level for Peter Billson: 17,401, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Chris Matthews: 5,804, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Peter Billson to win as he is currently playing 200% better than Chris Matthews.

Peter Billson won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Billson played 16% better than Chris Matthews in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Billson was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,277 and 17,401 without affecting his level.

As Peter Billson has played below his allowed range at 7,905, his level reduction is 17% before damping. On the assumption that Peter Billson would normally have been playing at level 13,157 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Matthews played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 40%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.7% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Billson changes to -9.7% and Chris Matthews changes to +16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Billson becomes -2.8% and for Chris Matthews becomes +5.2%.

Given Peter Billson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Chris Matthews's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Billson is -1.5% and for Chris Matthews is +3.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Billson: 77%, Chris Matthews: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Billson: 48%, Chris Matthews: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Billson: 17,112, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Chris Matthews: 6,014, level confidence: 55%.