Adrian Waller v Connor Sheen (Tue 15 Jan 2019)
Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-4.
Starting level for
Adrian Waller:
40,305, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Connor Sheen:
16,289, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing
147% better than Connor Sheen.
Adrian Waller won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played
74% better than Connor Sheen in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Adrian Waller was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,551 and 40,305 without affecting his level.
In this case, Adrian Waller played at level 30,515 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Adrian Waller would normally have been playing at level 32,914 (based on typical behaviour), Connor Sheen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to 0% and Connor Sheen changes to +4.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes 0% and for Connor Sheen becomes +1.8%.
Given Connor Sheen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Adrian Waller is 0% and for Connor Sheen is +1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 92%, Connor Sheen: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 77%, Connor Sheen: 73%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Adrian Waller:
40,245, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Connor Sheen:
16,428, level confidence: 73%.