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Saurav Ghosal v Mohamed Reda (Wed 09 Jan 2019)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-1,7-11,11-3,11-6.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 48,583, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Mohamed Reda: 29,409, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Mohamed Reda.

Saurav Ghosal won 75% of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 90% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 47% better than Mohamed Reda in this match.

In this case, Saurav Ghosal played at level 44,148 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Saurav Ghosal would normally have been playing at level 45,206 (based on typical behaviour), Mohamed Reda played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to 0% and Mohamed Reda changes to +1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes 0% and for Mohamed Reda becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cci International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 77%, Mohamed Reda: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 72%, Mohamed Reda: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 48,438, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Mohamed Reda: 29,787, level confidence: 80%.