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Tarek Momen v Youssef Soliman (Wed 09 Jan 2019)

Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 12-14,11-8,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Tarek Momen: 57,451, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 35,504, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Youssef Soliman.

Tarek Momen won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played 22% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.

As Tarek Momen has played below his allowed range at 46,626, his level reduction is 7.8% before damping. On the assumption that Tarek Momen would normally have been playing at level 53,736 (based on typical behaviour), Youssef Soliman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 8.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to -6.1% and Youssef Soliman changes to +7.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes -1.6% and for Youssef Soliman becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cci International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 86%, Youssef Soliman: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 74%, Youssef Soliman: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Momen: 56,489, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman: 36,352, level confidence: 79%.