Marcus Hayes v Matt Bolt (Sat 12 Jan 2019)
Match won by Matt Bolt. Result: 11-8,10-12,11-5,7-11,8-11.
Starting level for
Marcus Hayes:
8,169, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Matt Bolt:
6,930, level confidence: 69%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing
18% better than Matt Bolt.
Matt Bolt won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Bolt played
8% better than Marcus Hayes in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt Bolt actually played at a level of
7,801 and Marcus Hayes at a level of
7,257. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Bolt changes to +9.1% and Marcus Hayes changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Bolt becomes +3.2% and for Marcus Hayes becomes -3.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'South England Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Bolt: 83%, Marcus Hayes: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Bolt: 74%, Marcus Hayes: 66%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Marcus Hayes:
7,864, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Matt Bolt:
7,143, level confidence: 74%.