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Daryl Selby v Jaymie Haycocks (Wed 09 Jan 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 9-11,8-11,14-12,11-5,12-10.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 42,437, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 25,875, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Jaymie Haycocks.

Daryl Selby won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 10% better than Jaymie Haycocks in this match.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 32,122, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 39,560 (based on typical behaviour), Jaymie Haycocks played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.9% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -9.9% and Jaymie Haycocks changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -2.4% and for Jaymie Haycocks becomes +3%.

Given Daryl Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 71% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jaymie Haycocks's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 49% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is -1% and for Jaymie Haycocks is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 80%, Jaymie Haycocks: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 66%, Jaymie Haycocks: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 41,938, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 26,228, level confidence: 70%.