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Mostafa Asal v Nick Wall (Sun 06 Jan 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-4,11-7,4-11,11-5.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 36,948, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Nick Wall: 23,517, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Nick Wall.

Mostafa Asal won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 29% better than Nick Wall in this match.

As Mostafa Asal has played below his allowed range at 31,534, his level reduction is 4% before damping. On the assumption that Mostafa Asal would normally have been playing at level 34,804 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Wall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 5.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to -3.2% and Nick Wall changes to +3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes -1.2% and for Nick Wall becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'British Junior Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 74%, Nick Wall: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 67%, Nick Wall: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 36,466, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Nick Wall: 23,936, level confidence: 81%.