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Karim Elbarbary v Haris Qasim (Sun 06 Jan 2019)

Match won by Karim Elbarbary. Result: 11-7,11-9,7-11,11-9.

Starting level for Karim Elbarbary: 9,359, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Haris Qasim: 14,630, level confidence: 40%.
Haris Qasim to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Karim Elbarbary.

Karim Elbarbary won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Elbarbary played 20% better than Haris Qasim in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Elbarbary actually played at a level of 12,840 and Haris Qasim at a level of 10,663. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Elbarbary changes to +21% and Haris Qasim changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Elbarbary becomes +5.7% and for Haris Qasim becomes -6.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Haris Qasim is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Karim Elbarbary has already increased 20% since starting this event at level 7773. The amount a player can increase in a single event is limited to 25% so Karim Elbarbary's increase for this match has been limited to 3.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Elbarbary: 75%, Haris Qasim: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Elbarbary: 54%, Haris Qasim: 46%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Elbarbary: 9,716, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Haris Qasim: 14,195, level confidence: 46%.