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Andrew Barr v Grégory Malsang (Sat 05 Jan 2019)

Match won by Andrew Barr. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-3.

Starting level for Andrew Barr: 3,994, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Grégory Malsang: 4,229, level confidence: 62%.
Grégory Malsang to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Andrew Barr.

Andrew Barr won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Barr played 120% better than Grégory Malsang in this match.

Andrew Barr has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 4477. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Barr actually played at a level of 6,454 and Grégory Malsang at a level of 2,934. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Barr changes to +43% and Grégory Malsang changes to -41%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Barr becomes +12.4% and for Grégory Malsang becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andrew Barr is limited to +10% and Grégory Malsang is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Andrew Barr has already increased 40% since starting this event at level 3195. The amount a player can increase in a single event is limited to 25% so Andrew Barr's increase for this match has been limited to 0%.

Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Andrew Barr is +12%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Barr: 77%, Grégory Malsang: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Barr: 51%, Grégory Malsang: 51%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Barr: 4,483, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Grégory Malsang: 4,038, level confidence: 51%.