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Mostafa Asal v Omar El Torkey (Sat 05 Jan 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-1.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 34,865, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Omar El Torkey: 25,125, level confidence: 65%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Omar El Torkey.

Mostafa Asal won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 200% better than Omar El Torkey in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of 51,264 and Omar El Torkey at a level of 17,088. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 39% and 39% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +38% and Omar El Torkey changes to -39%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +7.2% and for Omar El Torkey becomes -7.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mostafa Asal is limited to +5.5% and Omar El Torkey is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 81%, Omar El Torkey: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 55%, Omar El Torkey: 55%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 36,828, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Omar El Torkey: 24,392, level confidence: 55%.