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Paul Gonzalez v Malik Bilen (Sat 05 Jan 2019)

Match won by Paul Gonzalez. Result: 11-6,12-10,11-7.

Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 6,507, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Malik Bilen: 5,769, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Paul Gonzalez to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Malik Bilen.

Paul Gonzalez won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gonzalez played 50% better than Malik Bilen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Gonzalez actually played at a level of 7,509 and Malik Bilen at a level of 4,999. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez changes to +14% and Malik Bilen changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez becomes +4.6% and for Malik Bilen becomes -4.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gonzalez: 84%, Malik Bilen: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gonzalez: 72%, Malik Bilen: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 6,826, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Malik Bilen: 5,521, level confidence: 73%.