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Mostafa Asal v Veer Chotrani (Thu 03 Jan 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-9,11-8,11-5.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 32,086, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Veer Chotrani: 15,931, level confidence: 67%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 101% better than Veer Chotrani.

Mostafa Asal won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 52% better than Veer Chotrani in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mostafa Asal was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 24,520 and 32,086 without affecting his level.

As Mostafa Asal has played below his allowed range at 24,339, his level reduction is 0.7% before damping. On the assumption that Mostafa Asal would normally have been playing at level 28,049 (based on typical behaviour), Veer Chotrani played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 5.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to -0.5% and Veer Chotrani changes to +5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes -0.2% and for Veer Chotrani becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 82%, Veer Chotrani: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 71%, Veer Chotrani: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 32,099, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Veer Chotrani: 16,271, level confidence: 71%.