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Mostafa Asal v Leo Vargas (Wed 02 Jan 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 31,926, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Leo Vargas: 9,559, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 234% better than Leo Vargas.

Mostafa Asal won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 83% better than Leo Vargas in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mostafa Asal was taking it easy by anything up to 28%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 16,535 and 31,926 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mostafa Asal played at level 20,066 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mostafa Asal would normally have been playing at level 22,976 (based on typical behaviour), Leo Vargas played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to 0% and Leo Vargas changes to +6.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes 0% and for Leo Vargas becomes +2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 81%, Leo Vargas: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 60%, Leo Vargas: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 32,006, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Leo Vargas: 9,811, level confidence: 65%.