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Ondrej Uherka v Tom J Walsh (Fri 14 Dec 2018)

Match won by Tom J Walsh. Result: 2-11,5-11,2-11.

Starting level for Ondrej Uherka: 13,910, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Tom J Walsh: 22,333, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Tom J Walsh to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Ondrej Uherka.

Tom J Walsh won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom J Walsh played 267% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom J Walsh actually played at a level of 33,750 and Ondrej Uherka at a level of 9,205. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 51% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 39% and 39% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom J Walsh changes to +30% and Ondrej Uherka changes to -39%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom J Walsh becomes +6.5% and for Ondrej Uherka becomes -8.7%.

Given Tom J Walsh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change.

Given Ondrej Uherka's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Tom J Walsh is +3.4% and for Ondrej Uherka is -4.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom J Walsh: 88%, Ondrej Uherka: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom J Walsh: 58%, Ondrej Uherka: 52%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ondrej Uherka: 13,263, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Tom J Walsh: 23,101, level confidence: 58%.