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Daryl Selby v Tim Vail (Fri 14 Dec 2018)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 41,755, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Tim Vail: 20,400, level confidence: 66%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 105% better than Tim Vail.

Daryl Selby won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 74% better than Tim Vail in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daryl Selby was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 30,519 and 41,755 without affecting his level.

In this case, Daryl Selby played at level 35,876 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 36,325 (based on typical behaviour), Tim Vail played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to 0% and Tim Vail changes to +0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes 0% and for Tim Vail becomes +0.3%.

Given Tim Vail's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is 0% and for Tim Vail is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 73%, Tim Vail: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 67%, Tim Vail: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 41,759, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Tim Vail: 20,435, level confidence: 75%.