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Declan James v Nick Wall (Tue 11 Dec 2018)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-9,11-8,5-11,7-11,11-8.

Starting level for Declan James: 40,738, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Nick Wall: 23,272, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Nick Wall.

Declan James won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 6% better than Nick Wall in this match.

As Declan James has played below his allowed range at 28,779, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 37,315 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Wall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to -12% and Nick Wall changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes -2.8% and for Nick Wall becomes +3%.

Given Declan James's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 69% has been applied to his level change.

Given Nick Wall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Declan James is -1.2% and for Nick Wall is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 74%, Nick Wall: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 58%, Nick Wall: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 40,186, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Nick Wall: 23,596, level confidence: 69%.