Chris Simpson v Benjamin Aubert (Fri 14 Dec 2018)
Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-7,13-11,8-11,11-8.
Starting level for
Chris Simpson:
35,942, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Benjamin Aubert:
25,222, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing
43% better than Benjamin Aubert.
Chris Simpson won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played
22% better than Benjamin Aubert in this match.
As Chris Simpson has played below his allowed range at 31,997, his level reduction is 3.9% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 34,567 (based on typical behaviour), Benjamin Aubert played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to -3.3% and Benjamin Aubert changes to +4.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes -1.2% and for Benjamin Aubert becomes +1.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA London Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 80%, Benjamin Aubert: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 74%, Benjamin Aubert: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Chris Simpson:
35,494, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Benjamin Aubert:
25,707, level confidence: 78%.