Julia Le Coq v Bruna Marchesi Petrillo (Wed 12 Dec 2018)
Match won by Julia Le Coq. Result: 11-4,3-11,9-11,11-2,11-0.
Starting level for
Julia Le Coq:
2,777, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for
Bruna Marchesi Petrillo:
2,067, level confidence: 69%.
Julia Le Coq to win as she is currently playing
34% better than Bruna Marchesi Petrillo.
Julia Le Coq won 60% of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julia Le Coq played
23% better than Bruna Marchesi Petrillo in this match.
As Julia Le Coq has played below her allowed range at 2,580, her level reduction is 1.7% before damping. On the assumption that Julia Le Coq would normally have been playing at level 2,700 (based on typical behaviour), Bruna Marchesi Petrillo played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.5% and 2.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julia Le Coq changes to -1.5% and Bruna Marchesi Petrillo changes to +1.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julia Le Coq becomes -1% and for Bruna Marchesi Petrillo becomes +1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internazionali Ditalia' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julia Le Coq: 68%, Bruna Marchesi Petrillo: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julia Le Coq: 65%, Bruna Marchesi Petrillo: 79%.
Final level for Julia Le Coq:
2,749, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Bruna Marchesi Petrillo:
2,096, level confidence: 79%.