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Matthew Marshall v Michael McLaughlin (Sun 16 Dec 2018)

Match won by Michael McLaughlin. Result: 11-2,2-11,9-11,11-8,8-11.

Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 10,001, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 8,401, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Michael McLaughlin.

Michael McLaughlin won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael McLaughlin played 9% better than Matthew Marshall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael McLaughlin actually played at a level of 9,557 and Matthew Marshall at a level of 8,791. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin changes to +12% and Matthew Marshall changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin becomes +3.7% and for Matthew Marshall becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'East England Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin is +3.4% and for Matthew Marshall is -3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael McLaughlin: 92%, Matthew Marshall: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael McLaughlin: 81%, Matthew Marshall: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Marshall: 9,658, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 8,671, level confidence: 81%.