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Matt Bolt v Marcus Hayes (Sat 15 Dec 2018)

Match won by Matt Bolt. Result: 11-5,14-12,15-13.

Starting level for Matt Bolt: 6,909, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,447, level confidence: 66%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Matt Bolt.

Matt Bolt won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Bolt played 40% better than Marcus Hayes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt Bolt actually played at a level of 9,055 and Marcus Hayes at a level of 6,445. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Bolt changes to +25% and Marcus Hayes changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Bolt becomes +7.1% and for Marcus Hayes becomes -7.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'East England Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment for Matt Bolt is +6.4% and for Marcus Hayes is -6.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Marcus Hayes is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Bolt: 85%, Marcus Hayes: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Bolt: 65%, Marcus Hayes: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Bolt: 7,343, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,169, level confidence: 62%.