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George Parker v Patrick Rooney (Tue 11 Dec 2018)

Match won by George Parker. Result: 12-14,11-7,11-9,6-11,12-10.

Starting level for George Parker: 40,299, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 26,461, level confidence: 66%.
George Parker to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Patrick Rooney.

George Parker won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Parker played 8% better than Patrick Rooney in this match.

As George Parker has played below his allowed range at 31,980, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that George Parker would normally have been playing at level 38,229 (based on typical behaviour), Patrick Rooney played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.5% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Parker changes to -7.4% and Patrick Rooney changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Parker becomes -2% and for Patrick Rooney becomes +3.1%.

Given George Parker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 68% has been applied to his level change.

Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 50% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for George Parker is -0.9% and for Patrick Rooney is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Parker: 91%, Patrick Rooney: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Parker: 77%, Patrick Rooney: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for George Parker: 39,892, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 26,830, level confidence: 68%.