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Pete Billson v Tom Elgood (Sat 08 Dec 2018)

Match won by Pete Billson. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Pete Billson: 16,962, level confidence: 26%.
Starting level for Tom Elgood: 7,228, level confidence: 64%.
Pete Billson to win as he is currently playing 135% better than Tom Elgood.

Pete Billson won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pete Billson played 74% better than Tom Elgood in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Pete Billson was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,747 and 16,962 without affecting his level.

In this case, Pete Billson played at level 13,312 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Pete Billson would normally have been playing at level 14,116 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Elgood played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pete Billson changes to 0% and Tom Elgood changes to +1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pete Billson becomes 0% and for Tom Elgood becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh Masters Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pete Billson: 51%, Tom Elgood: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pete Billson: 44%, Tom Elgood: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Pete Billson: 16,937, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Tom Elgood: 7,279, level confidence: 69%.