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Peter Billson v Tom Elgood (Fri 07 Dec 2018)

Match won by Peter Billson. Result: 11-9,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Peter Billson: 16,887, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Elgood: 7,006, level confidence: 60%.
Peter Billson to win as he is currently playing 141% better than Tom Elgood.

Peter Billson won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Billson played 65% better than Tom Elgood in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Billson was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,477 and 16,887 without affecting his level.

In this case, Peter Billson played at level 12,686 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Peter Billson would normally have been playing at level 13,922 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Elgood played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Billson changes to 0% and Tom Elgood changes to +6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Billson becomes 0% and for Tom Elgood becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh Masters Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Billson: 90%, Tom Elgood: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Billson: 75%, Tom Elgood: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Billson: 16,871, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Tom Elgood: 7,171, level confidence: 64%.