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Daryl Selby v Steve London (Tue 11 Dec 2018)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-7,5-11,11-9,11-4.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 41,078, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Steve London: 9,456, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 334% better than Steve London.

Daryl Selby won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 24% better than Steve London in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daryl Selby was taking it easy by anything up to 37%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,361 and 41,078 without affecting his level.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 12,987, his level reduction is 10.6% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 25,749 (based on typical behaviour), Steve London played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 48%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -4.9% and Steve London changes to +18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -1.5% and for Steve London becomes +5.1%.

Given Daryl Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 69% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Steve London's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Kent NW Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is -0.7% and for Steve London is +3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 84%, Steve London: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 45%, Steve London: 48%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 40,745, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Steve London: 9,756, level confidence: 48%.