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Iker Pajares v Richie Fallows (Sun 09 Dec 2018)

Match won by Iker Pajares. Result: 11-9,11-6,5-11,11-6.

Starting level for Iker Pajares: 29,207, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Richie Fallows: 29,228, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Iker Pajares.

Iker Pajares won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Iker Pajares played 23% better than Richie Fallows in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Iker Pajares actually played at a level of 32,396 and Richie Fallows at a level of 26,351. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Iker Pajares changes to +10.9% and Richie Fallows changes to -10.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Iker Pajares becomes +2.7% and for Richie Fallows becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Florida Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Iker Pajares: 83%, Richie Fallows: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Iker Pajares: 75%, Richie Fallows: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Iker Pajares: 29,949, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Richie Fallows: 28,561, level confidence: 76%.