Youssef Soliman v Shahjahan Khan (Sun 09 Dec 2018)
Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-8,11-4,11-3.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
33,446, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Shahjahan Khan:
24,876, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing
34% better than Shahjahan Khan.
Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played
120% better than Shahjahan Khan in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of
42,783 and Shahjahan Khan at a level of
19,447. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +24% and Shahjahan Khan changes to -18%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +4.9% and for Shahjahan Khan becomes -4.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cns International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 80%, Shahjahan Khan: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 63%, Shahjahan Khan: 70%.
A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
34,800, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Shahjahan Khan:
24,392, level confidence: 70%.