Iker Pajares Bernabeu v Josue Enriquez (Sat 08 Dec 2018)
Match won by Iker Pajares Bernabeu. Result: 11-3,8-11,12-10,11-8.
Starting level for
Iker Pajares Bernabeu:
29,575, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Josue Enriquez:
16,083, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Iker Pajares Bernabeu to win as he is currently playing
84% better than Josue Enriquez.
Iker Pajares Bernabeu won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Iker Pajares Bernabeu played
27% better than Josue Enriquez in this match.
As Iker Pajares Bernabeu has played below his allowed range at 22,186, his level reduction is 8.6% before damping. On the assumption that Iker Pajares Bernabeu would normally have been playing at level 26,690 (based on typical behaviour), Josue Enriquez played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 10.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to -6.2% and Josue Enriquez changes to +9.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes -1.9% and for Josue Enriquez becomes +2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Florida Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 83%, Josue Enriquez: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 69%, Josue Enriquez: 74%.
Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu:
29,035, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Josue Enriquez:
16,512, level confidence: 74%.