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Karim Abdel Gawad v Tarek Momen (Sat 08 Dec 2018)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 12-10,6-11,11-9,15-13.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 57,122, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Tarek Momen: 58,565, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Karim Abdel Gawad.

Karim Abdel Gawad won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 18% better than Tarek Momen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Abdel Gawad actually played at a level of 62,701 and Tarek Momen at a level of 53,354. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to +9.6% and Tarek Momen changes to -7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes +2.2% and for Tarek Momen becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 80%, Tarek Momen: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 73%, Tarek Momen: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 58,297, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Tarek Momen: 57,627, level confidence: 84%.