Youssef Soliman v Arturo Salazar (Sat 08 Dec 2018)
Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 9-11,11-2,12-10,11-6.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
31,937, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Arturo Salazar:
37,310, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Arturo Salazar to win as he is currently playing
17% better than Youssef Soliman.
Youssef Soliman won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played
33% better than Arturo Salazar in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of
39,762 and Arturo Salazar at a level of
29,968. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +22% and Arturo Salazar changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +4.7% and for Arturo Salazar becomes -4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cns International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 80%, Arturo Salazar: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 64%, Arturo Salazar: 70%.
A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
33,356, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar:
36,581, level confidence: 70%.