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Ali Farag v Saurav Ghosal (Fri 07 Dec 2018)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-3.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 68,591, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 49,672, level confidence: 60%.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Saurav Ghosal.

Ali Farag won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 83% better than Saurav Ghosal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Farag actually played at a level of 79,033 and Saurav Ghosal at a level of 43,109. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to +9.4% and Saurav Ghosal changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes +2.1% and for Saurav Ghosal becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 90%, Saurav Ghosal: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 79%, Saurav Ghosal: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 69,711, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 48,583, level confidence: 67%.