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Youssef Soliman v Israr Ahmed (Fri 07 Dec 2018)

Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 31,280, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Israr Ahmed: 20,566, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Israr Ahmed.

Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played 83% better than Israr Ahmed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of 34,342 and Israr Ahmed at a level of 18,732. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.9% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +7.9% and Israr Ahmed changes to -5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +2.1% and for Israr Ahmed becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cns International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 71%, Israr Ahmed: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 64%, Israr Ahmed: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Youssef Soliman: 31,763, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Israr Ahmed: 20,314, level confidence: 78%.