Ali Farag v Mostafa Asal (Thu 06 Dec 2018)
Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-4,13-11,11-3.
Starting level for
Ali Farag:
68,886, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mostafa Asal:
32,021, level confidence: 68%.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing
115% better than Mostafa Asal.
Ali Farag won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played
94% better than Mostafa Asal in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ali Farag was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 50,548 and 68,886 without affecting his level.
In this case, Ali Farag played at level 62,263 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Mostafa Asal is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 87%, Mostafa Asal: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 82%, Mostafa Asal: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ali Farag:
68,955, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Mostafa Asal:
32,196, level confidence: 78%.