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Saurav Ghosal v Omar Mosaad (Thu 06 Dec 2018)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-6,12-10,11-1.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 47,901, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Omar Mosaad: 37,815, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Omar Mosaad.

Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 100% better than Omar Mosaad in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of 60,189 and Omar Mosaad at a level of 30,095. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +22% and Omar Mosaad changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +4.4% and for Omar Mosaad becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 76%, Omar Mosaad: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 60%, Omar Mosaad: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 49,672, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Omar Mosaad: 36,693, level confidence: 68%.