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Simon Rösner v Gregoire Marche (Thu 06 Dec 2018)

Match won by Simon Rösner. Result: 5-11,9-11,11-8,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Simon Rösner: 59,235, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 42,776, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Gregoire Marche.

Simon Rösner won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Rösner played 12% better than Gregoire Marche in this match.

As Simon Rösner has played below his allowed range at 51,483, his level reduction is 7.6% before damping. On the assumption that Simon Rösner would normally have been playing at level 57,278 (based on typical behaviour), Gregoire Marche played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.4% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Rösner changes to -6.4% and Gregoire Marche changes to +7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Rösner becomes -1.7% and for Gregoire Marche becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Rösner: 86%, Gregoire Marche: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Rösner: 77%, Gregoire Marche: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Rösner: 58,206, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche: 43,641, level confidence: 81%.