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Youssef Soliman v Owais Rasheed (Thu 06 Dec 2018)

Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-8,11-2,11-8.

Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 31,574, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Owais Rasheed: 5,557, level confidence: 19%.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing 468% better than Owais Rasheed.

Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played 83% better than Owais Rasheed in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Youssef Soliman was taking it easy by anything up to 46%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,262 and 31,574 without affecting his level.

In this case, Youssef Soliman played at level 13,199 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Youssef Soliman would normally have been playing at level 17,101 (based on typical behaviour), Owais Rasheed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 30%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to 0% and Owais Rasheed changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes 0% and for Owais Rasheed becomes +4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cns International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 88%, Owais Rasheed: 44%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 50%, Owais Rasheed: 25%.

Final level for Youssef Soliman: 31,574, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Owais Rasheed: 5,781, level confidence: 25%.