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Mostafa Asal v Declan James (Wed 05 Dec 2018)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 15-13,4-11,3-11,12-10,11-8.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 30,851, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Declan James: 42,731, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Mostafa Asal.

Mostafa Asal won 60% of the games and 46% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 4% better than Declan James in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of 36,979 and Declan James at a level of 35,650. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +17% and Declan James changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +3.8% and for Declan James becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 82%, Declan James: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 68%, Declan James: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 32,021, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Declan James: 41,518, level confidence: 75%.