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Saurav Ghosal v Karim Ali Fathi (Wed 05 Dec 2018)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-3,11-1,13-11.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 46,168, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Karim Ali Fathi: 32,765, level confidence: 66%.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Karim Ali Fathi.

Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 133% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 133% better than Karim Ali Fathi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of 59,411 and Karim Ali Fathi at a level of 25,462. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +24% and Karim Ali Fathi changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +4.6% and for Karim Ali Fathi becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 74%, Karim Ali Fathi: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 58%, Karim Ali Fathi: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 47,901, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Karim Ali Fathi: 31,699, level confidence: 63%.