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Paul Coll v Todd Harrity (Wed 05 Dec 2018)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 11-6,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 53,138, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Todd Harrity: 29,670, level confidence: 50%.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 79% better than Todd Harrity.

Paul Coll won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 154% better than Todd Harrity in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Coll actually played at a level of 63,263 and Todd Harrity at a level of 24,922. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to +8.6% and Todd Harrity changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes +2.1% and for Todd Harrity becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 90%, Todd Harrity: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 76%, Todd Harrity: 59%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 53,963, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Todd Harrity: 28,990, level confidence: 59%.