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Chris Simpson v Zahed Mohamed (Wed 05 Dec 2018)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-7,5-11,11-8,9-11,11-9.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 33,720, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 39,680, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Zahed Mohamed to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Chris Simpson.

Chris Simpson won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 8% better than Zahed Mohamed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Simpson actually played at a level of 38,021 and Zahed Mohamed at a level of 35,191. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to +12% and Zahed Mohamed changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes +2.8% and for Zahed Mohamed becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 89%, Zahed Mohamed: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 79%, Zahed Mohamed: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 34,649, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 38,709, level confidence: 81%.