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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Max Lee (Wed 05 Dec 2018)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-7,13-11,2-11,12-10.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 70,263, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Max Lee: 41,326, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Max Lee.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 16% better than Max Lee in this match.

As Mohamed Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 53,572, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 64,885 (based on typical behaviour), Max Lee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -9% and Max Lee changes to +10.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -2.1% and for Max Lee becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 80%, Max Lee: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 66%, Max Lee: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 68,738, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Max Lee: 42,411, level confidence: 71%.