Chris Simpson v Edmon Lopez Moller (Tue 04 Dec 2018)
Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-8,11-9,11-6.
Starting level for
Chris Simpson:
33,336, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Edmon Lopez Moller:
28,431, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing
17% better than Edmon Lopez Moller.
Chris Simpson won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played
47% better than Edmon Lopez Moller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Simpson actually played at a level of
37,362 and Edmon Lopez Moller at a level of
25,368. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to +9.8% and Edmon Lopez Moller changes to -11.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes +2.5% and for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes -2.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 89%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 80%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 75%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Chris Simpson:
34,057, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller:
27,817, level confidence: 75%.