SquashLevels calculations
Gregoire Marche v Mohamed Reda (Tue 04 Dec 2018)
Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-8.
Starting level for
Gregoire Marche:
42,835, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mohamed Reda:
28,336, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing
51% better than Mohamed Reda.
Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played
47% better than Mohamed Reda in this match.
In this case, Gregoire Marche played at level 41,733 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Mohamed Reda is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 84%, Mohamed Reda: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 83%, Mohamed Reda: 86%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Gregoire Marche:
42,838, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Mohamed Reda:
28,448, level confidence: 86%.