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George Parker v Peter Creed (Tue 04 Dec 2018)

Match won by George Parker. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-7.

Starting level for George Parker: 38,651, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,135, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
George Parker to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Peter Creed.

George Parker won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Parker played 120% better than Peter Creed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George Parker actually played at a level of 48,035 and Peter Creed at a level of 21,834. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Parker changes to +19% and Peter Creed changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Parker becomes +4% and for Peter Creed becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Parker: 87%, Peter Creed: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Parker: 70%, Peter Creed: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for George Parker: 39,940, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 26,237, level confidence: 69%.