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Tjeu Dubbeldam v Paul Gonzalez (Sun 09 Dec 2018)

Match won by Tjeu Dubbeldam. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Tjeu Dubbeldam: 6,695, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 6,476, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Tjeu Dubbeldam to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Paul Gonzalez.

Tjeu Dubbeldam won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tjeu Dubbeldam played 83% better than Paul Gonzalez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tjeu Dubbeldam actually played at a level of 8,916 and Paul Gonzalez at a level of 4,863. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tjeu Dubbeldam changes to +30% and Paul Gonzalez changes to -33%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tjeu Dubbeldam becomes +8.3% and for Paul Gonzalez becomes -9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Swiss Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Gonzalez is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tjeu Dubbeldam: 90%, Paul Gonzalez: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tjeu Dubbeldam: 68%, Paul Gonzalez: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tjeu Dubbeldam: 7,269, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 6,219, level confidence: 65%.