Miguel Mathis v Paul Gonzalez (Sat 08 Dec 2018)
Match won by Miguel Mathis. Result: 11-7,8-11,11-9,5-11,11-9.
Starting level for
Miguel Mathis:
8,478, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Paul Gonzalez:
6,272, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Miguel Mathis to win as he is currently playing
35% better than Paul Gonzalez.
Miguel Mathis won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Mathis played
7% better than Paul Gonzalez in this match.
As Miguel Mathis has played below his allowed range at 7,324, his level reduction is 9.2% before damping. On the assumption that Miguel Mathis would normally have been playing at level 8,234 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Gonzalez played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.8% and 9.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Mathis changes to -7.8% and Paul Gonzalez changes to +8.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Mathis becomes -2.8% and for Paul Gonzalez becomes +3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Swiss Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Mathis: 81%, Paul Gonzalez: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Mathis: 72%, Paul Gonzalez: 76%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Miguel Mathis:
8,269, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Paul Gonzalez:
6,484, level confidence: 76%.