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Paul Gonzalez v Alex Smith (Sun 04 Nov 2018)

Match won by Paul Gonzalez. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 5,827, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alex Smith: 6,288, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Alex Smith to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Paul Gonzalez.

Paul Gonzalez won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gonzalez played 52% better than Alex Smith in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Gonzalez actually played at a level of 7,454 and Alex Smith at a level of 4,915. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez changes to +27% and Alex Smith changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez becomes +7.8% and for Alex Smith becomes -7.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Belgian Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alex Smith is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Paul Gonzalez has already increased 18% since starting this event at level 4934. The amount a player can increase in a single event is limited to 25% so Paul Gonzalez's increase for this match has been limited to 5.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gonzalez: 87%, Alex Smith: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gonzalez: 68%, Alex Smith: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 6,168, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Alex Smith: 6,088, level confidence: 70%.