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Ondrej Vorlícek v Pablo Richet (Fri 02 Nov 2018)

Match won by Ondrej Vorlícek. Result: 11-1,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Ondrej Vorlícek: 13,207, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Pablo Richet: 4,025, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Ondrej Vorlícek to win as he is currently playing 228% better than Pablo Richet.

Ondrej Vorlícek won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ondrej Vorlícek played 200% better than Pablo Richet in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ondrej Vorlícek was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,956 and 13,207 without affecting his level.

In this case, Ondrej Vorlícek played at level 12,075 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Pablo Richet is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ondrej Vorlícek: 87%, Pablo Richet: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ondrej Vorlícek: 84%, Pablo Richet: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ondrej Vorlícek: 13,240, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Pablo Richet: 4,035, level confidence: 80%.