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Romain Bastian v Mathias Vancamp (Sat 03 Nov 2018)

Match won by Romain Bastian. Result: 9-11,11-4,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Romain Bastian: 5,438, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mathias Vancamp: 909, level confidence: 18%.
Romain Bastian to win as he is currently playing 498% better than Mathias Vancamp.

Romain Bastian won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Romain Bastian played 35% better than Mathias Vancamp in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Romain Bastian was taking it easy by anything up to 47%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,515 and 5,438 without affecting his level.

As Romain Bastian has played below his allowed range at 1,364, his level reduction is 11.1% before damping. On the assumption that Romain Bastian would normally have been playing at level 2,870 (based on typical behaviour), Mathias Vancamp played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 53%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Romain Bastian changes to -1.1% and Mathias Vancamp changes to +19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Romain Bastian becomes -0.6% and for Mathias Vancamp becomes +10.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Belgian Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mathias Vancamp is limited to +10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Romain Bastian: 84%, Mathias Vancamp: 42%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Romain Bastian: 40%, Mathias Vancamp: 20%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Romain Bastian: 5,418, level confidence: 40%.
Final level for Mathias Vancamp: 1,002, level confidence: 20%.