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Paul Gonzalez v Toufik Mekhalfi (Sat 03 Nov 2018)

Match won by Paul Gonzalez. Result: 8-11,2-11,11-9,14-12,14-12.

Starting level for Paul Gonzalez: 5,403, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Toufik Mekhalfi: 7,935, level confidence: 67%.
Toufik Mekhalfi to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Paul Gonzalez.

Paul Gonzalez won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gonzalez played 5% better than Toufik Mekhalfi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Gonzalez actually played at a level of 6,702 and Toufik Mekhalfi at a level of 6,397. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez changes to +19% and Toufik Mekhalfi changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gonzalez becomes +6.2% and for Toufik Mekhalfi becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Belgian Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Toufik Mekhalfi is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gonzalez: 81%, Toufik Mekhalfi: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gonzalez: 66%, Toufik Mekhalfi: 66%.

A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Gonzalez: 5,750, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Toufik Mekhalfi: 7,742, level confidence: 66%.